Before and After November 7: What to Expect, Why Elections Matter and What Your Organization Can Do to Prepare
03:30 PM Sep 28, 2006
Although much media attention focuses on the federal picture – i.e.,
will the Democrats take the U.S. House and Senate? -- it is at the state
level where elections matter most for very many progressives. The
outcome of some state legislative elections could dramatically influence
folks' work come 2007.
The candidates we elect on election day become policy-makers come
January. Now is the time to get to know them. What can we do? A wide
variety of things, depending upon 501(c)3 or 501(c)4 status. Or, you can set
aside organizational associations and act as an individual.
*This is the time to meet candidates. When someone is running, they are
more open and receptive than at any other time.
*Establish a relationship with an elected official. Find out where people stand on your issues. They expect to answer questions, and they know they will be held accountable by their constituents.
*Do nose counting in the legislature. People change their minds, some
won’t do what they say, some will, but most will stay where they said
they would.
*Elections are a great time to advocate. Candidates pay careful
attention to their constituents’ questions. If you bring an issue up,
they will think it is important and they will know that voters are
bugging them about it. Raise the issue in public forums or private
meetings. (The Sierra Club and teachers’ groups wear buttons so
candidates and others in campaigns know who’s present and who votes.
Organizational identity makes a difference.)
*Consider candidate surveys as a way to acquaint yourselves with legislators or as an educational tool -- though some candidates receive up to 100 surveys, so many only answer those they think will reach the most important constituency or help with an endorsement.
*In states where the political climate is strongly against you, think about what is possible to achieve in two to four years. Find a reform that you are interested in and talk with legislators about that, or on other pieces of the overall puzzle. Study whether your "unpopular" issue really matters to voters, or whether legislators can support you without actually hurting themselves at the polls. If it's something that can only work against you, don't make it an issue during the elections.
Will 2006 be a wave election? At the federal level, the picture is not yet crystal clear, although there are indications that throw-out-the-incumbents sentiment is brewing.
What does seem clear, however, is that changes at the state legislative level (and in state governors' mansions) are afoot. This, more than anything else that happens on Nov. 7, significantly will affect the work of progressive nonprofits in 2007 and beyond.
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2006 ELECTION OVERVIEW Federal Level: Democrats need 15 seats to capture the U.S. House. (Contested seats are scattered literally all over the country, but are concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast, and to a lesser extent in the western states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats need to pick up six seats to capture the U.S. Senate. (Tier One races: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island. Tier Two races: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Virginia.) State Level: 46 states are holding state legislative elections this year (all states except Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia). 7,382 state legislative seats are up for grabs. Although Democrats lost the presidential election and had a net loss of seats in Congress in 2004, they netted more than 60 state legislative seats nationwide. Nationwide, the number of legislative seats is very evenly split between the two parties, with Democrats holding a 21-seat advantage. In nine states, BOTH legislative chambers are within four seats of a tie or a new majority:
In 16 ADDITIONAL states, ONE legislative chamber is within four seats of a tie or a new majority.
So control of one or both legislative chambers could be in play in many of these 25 states. The party that controls the White House has lost state legislative seats in all but one off-year election since 1940. The lone exception was November 2002, when 9/11 dominated the political landscape. "Wave" elections at the top of the ballot sometimes create down-ballot tsunamis. In 1994, when Republicans picked up more than 50 seats in the U.S. House, they also netted more than 500 state legislative seats. An off-year "wave" election also occurred in 1974, but in reverse, with Democrats picking up hundreds of state legislative seats in the wake of the Watergate scandal. |
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